Championship · England · Regular Season - 15

Hull City–Portsmouth

3–2

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 8 November 2025 at 12:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'PortsmouthT. Devlin
27'Hull CityE. Destan (assist: L. Coyle)
42'Hull CityK. Joseph (assist: J. Gelhardt)
45'PortsmouthT. Devlin (assist: J. Murphy)
79'Hull CityJ. Gelhardt (assist: C. Hughes)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Hull City		Portsmouth
13	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
5	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
57%	Possession	43%
392	Passes	286
289	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Hull City 1.50 · Portsmouth 1.09. On the pitch: 3-2.
Shots Hull City 13 · Portsmouth 13; on target 4 and 5.
Hull City kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

Tom Nield, England→

4.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Hull City to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.58 for Hull City, 1.08 for Portsmouth.
The highest double chance value is 75.4% (1X — Hull City win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,824 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Hull City to win48.4%

Draw27.0%

Portsmouth to win24.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

6	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Hull City lead at half-time41.3%

Level at half-time43.1%

Portsmouth lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Hull City ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Portsmouth ahead58.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1824 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Hull City: at least 11Actual: 6
Portsmouth: at least 9Actual: 14

Corners

Hull City: at least 5Actual: 5
Portsmouth: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Hull City score1.50

Attack: Hull City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Portsmouth's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Portsmouth score1.09

Attack: Portsmouth score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hull City's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.7%2–110.4%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.