Championship · England · Regular Season - 14

Sheffield Wednesday–Norwich

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

4'Sheffield WednesdayB. Bannan (assist: Max Lowe)
61'NorwichM. Kvistgaarden (assist: J. Sargent)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Norwich
15	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
9	Corners	4
3	Offsides	3
46%	Possession	54%
321	Passes	387
233	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.40 · Norwich 1.38. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 15 · Norwich 13; on target 6 and 3.

Referee

Edward Duckworth, England→

6.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.5%: “Norwich to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Wednesday to win” at 31.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.46 for Norwich.
The highest double chance value is 72.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win31.9%

Draw27.6%

Norwich to win40.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

0	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time19.3%

Level at half-time42.1%

Norwich lead at half-time38.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level61.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Norwich ahead80.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1819 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 11Actual: 9
Norwich: at least 10Actual: 8

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 5Actual: 9
Norwich: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.40

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Norwich's defence is close to the league average (1.13×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Norwich score1.38

Attack: Norwich score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 24% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%1–29.6%0–18.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.