Championship · England · Regular Season - 14

Preston–Swansea

2–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 5 November 2025 at 19:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Deepdale, Preston

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

8'PrestonT. Small
49'PrestonMilutin Osmajić (assist: H. Armstrong)
80'SwanseaEom Ji-Sung (assist: I. Samuels-Smith)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Preston		Swansea
4	Shots	18
3	Shots on target	5
2	Shots inside the box	8
4	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
1	Offsides	1
33%	Possession	67%
276	Passes	574
193	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Preston 1.35 · Swansea 1.02. On the pitch: 2-1.
Shots Preston 4 · Swansea 18; on target 3 and 5.
Swansea kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Anthony Backhouse, England→

4.60

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

5 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.4%: “Preston to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Preston, 0.99 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (1X — Preston win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,819 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Preston to win42.4%

Draw30.1%

Swansea to win27.5%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	5

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Preston lead at half-time35.0%

Level at half-time45.4%

Swansea lead at half-time19.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Preston ahead or level80.4%

12 — not level at half-time54.6%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead65.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1819 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Preston: at least 11Actual: 12
Swansea: at least 9Actual: 5

Corners

Preston: at least 4Actual: 2
Swansea: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Preston score1.35

Attack: Preston score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.99×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.35 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score1.02

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Preston's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.02 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–012.4%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.