Championship · England · Regular Season - 13

Oxford United–Millwall

2–2

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'MillwallT. Ballo (assist: R. Leonard)
45'Oxford UnitedC. Brannagan (assist: S. Mills)
66'MillwallJ. Cooper
90'Oxford UnitedP. Placheta

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Millwall
14	Shots	11
6	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	8
0	Offsides	4
49%	Possession	51%
363	Passes	381
241	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 1.12 · Millwall 1.13. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Oxford United 14 · Millwall 11; on target 6 and 4.

Referee

Farai Hallam, England→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.5%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “Millwall to win” at 34.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Oxford United, 1.19 for Millwall.
The highest double chance value is 70.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,803 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win35.5%

Draw29.8%

Millwall to win34.7%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

5	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Oxford United lead at half-time25.9%

Level at half-time45.0%

Millwall lead at half-time29.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level70.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.0%

X2 — level or Millwall ahead74.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 10Actual: 5
Millwall: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 5
Millwall: at least 4Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score1.12

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Millwall's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Millwall score1.13

Attack: Millwall score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.1%1–010.1%0–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.