Championship · England · Regular Season - 13

QPR–Ipswich

1–4

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 1 November 2025 at 15:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

2'IpswichG. Hirst (assist: S. W. Egeli)
21'QPRR. Burrell
47'IpswichM. Núñez
57'IpswichG. Hirst (assist: Darnell Furlong)
64'IpswichM. Núñez

Match statistics

Match statistics
QPR		Ipswich
12	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	7
5	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	2
2	Offsides	2
38%	Possession	62%
290	Passes	478
201	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: QPR 1.06 · Ipswich 1.47. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots QPR 12 · Ipswich 12; on target 5 and 7.
Ipswich kept the ball more (62%).

Referee

Sam Allison, England→

2.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.1%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “QPR to win” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.17 for QPR, 1.53 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 72.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,803 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

QPR to win27.6%

Draw27.3%

Ipswich to win45.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

16	Fouls	10

4	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

QPR lead at half-time19.1%

Level at half-time41.7%

Ipswich lead at half-time39.2%

First-half double chance

1X — QPR ahead or level60.8%

12 — not level at half-time58.3%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead80.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1803 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

QPR: at least 11Actual: 16
Ipswich: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

QPR: at least 4Actual: 3
Ipswich: at least 5Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals QPR score1.06

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ipswich score1.47

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (37% more).

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.8%1–210.1%0–19.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.