Championship · England · Regular Season - 12

Sheffield Wednesday–Oxford United

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 October 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Oxford UnitedW. Lankshear (assist: C. Brannagan)
36'Oxford UnitedC. Brannagan
53'Sheffield WednesdayS. Fusire

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		Oxford United
17	Shots	11
5	Shots on target	4
12	Shots inside the box	5
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
8	Corners	3
2	Offsides	4
67%	Possession	33%
552	Passes	274
448	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.41 · Oxford United 1.13. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 17 · Oxford United 11; on target 5 and 4.
Sheffield Wednesday kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Paul Tierney, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 40.1%: “Oxford United to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Wednesday to win” at 31.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.37 for Oxford United.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,791 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win31.3%

Draw28.6%

Oxford United to win40.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time24.9%

Level at half-time43.7%

Oxford United lead at half-time31.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level68.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Oxford United ahead75.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1791 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 10Actual: 11
Oxford United: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 7Actual: 8
Oxford United: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.41

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.05×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Oxford United score1.13

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (16% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 26% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.7%1–29.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.