Championship · England · Regular Season - 11

Ipswich–Charlton

0–3

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 21 October 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 15%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

52'CharltonS. Carey
55'CharltonMacaulay Gillesphey
64'CharltonM. Leaburn

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ipswich		Charlton
30	Shots	15
5	Shots on target	8
17	Shots inside the box	8
5	Goalkeeper saves	5
16	Corners	3
2	Offsides	2
67%	Possession	33%
448	Passes	226
376	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ipswich 1.75 · Charlton 0.81. On the pitch: 0-3.
Shots Ipswich 30 · Charlton 15; on target 5 and 8.
Ipswich kept the ball more (67%).

Referee

Farai Hallam, England→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 60.2%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.78 for Ipswich, 0.82 for Charlton.
The highest double chance value is 84.5% (1X — Ipswich win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,775 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ipswich to win60.2%

Draw24.3%

Charlton to win15.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	11

0	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Ipswich lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time46.1%

Charlton lead at half-time28.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Ipswich ahead or level71.5%

12 — not level at half-time53.9%

X2 — level or Charlton ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1775 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ipswich: at least 10Actual: 7
Charlton: at least 12Actual: 11

Corners

Ipswich: at least 5Actual: 16
Charlton: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ipswich score1.75

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Charlton's defence is close to the league average (0.93×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.75 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Charlton score0.81

Attack: Charlton score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.81 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–012.5%1–112.3%2–012.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.