Championship · England · Regular Season - 10

Coventry–Blackburn

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 18 October 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'CoventryV. Torp
59'CoventryB. Thomas-Asante

Match statistics

Match statistics
Coventry		Blackburn
14	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	3
6	Shots inside the box	9
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	7
2	Offsides	5
53%	Possession	47%
408	Passes	360
302	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Coventry 1.87 · Blackburn 0.84. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Coventry 14 · Blackburn 17; on target 5 and 3.

Referee

Sam Allison, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.9%: “Coventry to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.07 for Coventry, 0.90 for Blackburn.
The highest double chance value is 86.1% (1X — Coventry win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,767 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Coventry to win64.9%

Draw21.3%

Blackburn to win13.9%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

7	Fouls	15

0	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Coventry lead at half-time49.2%

Level at half-time39.9%

Blackburn lead at half-time10.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Coventry ahead or level89.1%

12 — not level at half-time60.1%

X2 — level or Blackburn ahead50.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1767 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Coventry: at least 10Actual: 7
Blackburn: at least 10Actual: 15

Corners

Coventry: at least 5Actual: 2
Blackburn: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals57.9%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 46.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Coventry score1.87

Attack: Coventry score above the league average (44% more).

Opponent's defence: Blackburn's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.87 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Blackburn score0.84

Attack: Blackburn score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Coventry's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.84 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–011.3%2–110.9%1–110.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.