Championship · England · Regular Season - 9

Derby–Southampton

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Pride Park Stadium, Derby

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 29%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'SouthamptonA. Armstrong
40'DerbyP. Agyemang (assist: A. Weimann)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Derby		Southampton
9	Shots	13
5	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	7
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
3	Corners	5
1	Offsides	2
37%	Possession	63%
338	Passes	578
266	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Derby 1.10 · Southampton 1.37. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Derby 9 · Southampton 13; on target 5 and 6.
Southampton kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Oliver Langford, England→

4.50

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.3%: “Southampton to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.04 for Derby, 1.39 for Southampton.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (X2 — draw or Southampton win).
These values were computed from 1,755 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Derby to win26.8%

Draw28.9%

Southampton to win44.3%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	9

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Derby lead at half-time26.7%

Level at half-time48.0%

Southampton lead at half-time25.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Derby ahead or level74.7%

12 — not level at half-time52.0%

X2 — level or Southampton ahead73.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1755 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Derby: at least 12Actual: 11
Southampton: at least 10Actual: 9

Corners

Derby: at least 3Actual: 3
Southampton: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Derby score1.10

Attack: Derby score below the league average (18% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Southampton's defence is close to the league average (0.96×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Southampton score1.37

Attack: Southampton score above the league average (29% more).

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–111.5%1–29.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.