Championship · England · Regular Season - 8

Bristol City–Ipswich

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 30 September 2025 at 18:45
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

18'Bristol CityR. Atkinson (assist: A. Mehmeti)
52'IpswichJ. Clarke (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bristol City		Ipswich
13	Shots	15
3	Shots on target	3
10	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	6
0	Offsides	3
36%	Possession	64%
291	Passes	522
208	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bristol City 1.24 · Ipswich 1.44. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Bristol City 13 · Ipswich 15; on target 3 and 3.
Ipswich kept the ball more (64%).

Referee

John Busby, England→

9.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 37.8%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “Bristol City to win” at 33.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.27 for Bristol City, 1.35 for Ipswich.
The highest double chance value is 71.7% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,739 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bristol City to win33.9%

Draw28.3%

Ipswich to win37.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	11

4	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bristol City lead at half-time30.0%

Level at half-time43.2%

Ipswich lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bristol City ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Ipswich ahead70.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1739 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bristol City: at least 10Actual: 14
Ipswich: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Bristol City: at least 5Actual: 3
Ipswich: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bristol City score1.24

Attack: Bristol City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ipswich's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.24 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ipswich score1.44

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (38% more).

Opponent's defence: Bristol City's defence is close to the league average (1.01×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.4%1–29.2%0–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.