Championship · England · Regular Season - 7

Sheffield Wednesday–QPR

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 27 September 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Hillsborough, Sheffield

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Sheffield WednesdayD. Iorfa (assist: B. Bannan)
48'QPRN. Madsen (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sheffield Wednesday		QPR
14	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	5
10	Shots inside the box	11
3	Goalkeeper saves	4
5	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
355	Passes	368
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sheffield Wednesday 1.46 · QPR 1.09. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sheffield Wednesday 14 · QPR 14; on target 5 and 5.

Referee

John Brooks, England→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “QPR to win”. Second comes “Sheffield Wednesday to win” at 30.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.19 for Sheffield Wednesday, 1.43 for QPR.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,731 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sheffield Wednesday to win30.2%

Draw28.1%

QPR to win41.7%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sheffield Wednesday lead at half-time29.7%

Level at half-time43.9%

QPR lead at half-time26.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Sheffield Wednesday ahead or level73.6%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or QPR ahead70.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1731 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 11Actual: 12
QPR: at least 10Actual: 19

Corners

Sheffield Wednesday: at least 6Actual: 5
QPR: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sheffield Wednesday score1.46

Attack: Sheffield Wednesday score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals QPR score1.09

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sheffield Wednesday concede 15% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–29.7%0–19.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.