Championship · England · Regular Season - 6

QPR–Stoke City

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

75'QPRH. Vale

Match statistics

Match statistics
QPR		Stoke City
14	Shots	7
7	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	4
0	Goalkeeper saves	6
3	Corners	6
1	Offsides	1
35%	Possession	65%
244	Passes	440
170	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: QPR 1.37 · Stoke City 1.08. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots QPR 14 · Stoke City 7; on target 7 and 1.
Stoke City kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

Tim Robinson, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Stoke City to win”. Second comes “QPR to win” at 33.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.23 for QPR, 1.34 for Stoke City.
The highest double chance value is 71.4% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,717 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

QPR to win33.1%

Draw28.6%

Stoke City to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

5	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

QPR lead at half-time31.6%

Level at half-time43.8%

Stoke City lead at half-time24.6%

First-half double chance

1X — QPR ahead or level75.4%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Stoke City ahead68.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1717 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

QPR: at least 9Actual: 8
Stoke City: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

QPR: at least 5Actual: 3
Stoke City: at least 4Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals QPR score1.37

Attack: QPR score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Stoke City's defence is close to the league average (1.07×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Stoke City score1.08

Attack: Stoke City score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: QPR's defence is close to the league average (1.03×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.08 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.5%0–19.3%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.