Championship · England · Regular Season - 6

Birmingham–Swansea

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 20 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: St. Andrew's @ Knighthead Park, Birmingham

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90'BirminghamL. Dykes (assist: P. Roberts)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Birmingham		Swansea
23	Shots	9
7	Shots on target	2
12	Shots inside the box	6
2	Goalkeeper saves	5
7	Corners	2
3	Offsides	3
50%	Possession	50%
379	Passes	387
276	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Birmingham 1.27 · Swansea 0.95. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Birmingham 23 · Swansea 9; on target 7 and 2.

Referee

John Busby, England→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 47.2%: “Birmingham to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 29.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.37 for Birmingham, 0.91 for Swansea.
The highest double chance value is 76.6% (1X — Birmingham win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,717 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Birmingham to win47.2%

Draw29.4%

Swansea to win23.4%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

13	Fouls	11

5	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Birmingham lead at half-time25.2%

Level at half-time48.1%

Swansea lead at half-time26.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Birmingham ahead or level73.3%

12 — not level at half-time51.9%

X2 — level or Swansea ahead74.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1717 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Birmingham: at least 12Actual: 13
Swansea: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Birmingham: at least 4Actual: 7
Swansea: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Birmingham score1.27

Attack: Birmingham score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Swansea's defence is close to the league average (0.95×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.27 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Swansea score0.95

Attack: Swansea score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Birmingham concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.95 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–013.4%0–09.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.