Championship · England · Regular Season - 5

Oxford United–Leicester

2–2

HT 2–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 13 September 2025 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Oxford UnitedW. Lankshear (assist: Michał Helik)
13'LeicesterJ. Ayew
24'LeicesterA. Ramsey · red card
44'Oxford UnitedB. Soumare (own goal)
55'LeicesterRicardo Pereira (assist: A. Fatawu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Oxford United		Leicester
19	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
2	Offsides	4
55%	Possession	45%
484	Passes	410
424	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Oxford United 0.99 · Leicester 1.55. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Oxford United 19 · Leicester 8; on target 2 and 5.
Oxford United kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

B. Toner→

4.86

yellows per match

0.10

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.2%: “Leicester to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 27.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.03 for Oxford United, 1.52 for Leicester.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (X2 — draw or Leicester win).
These values were computed from 1,705 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Oxford United to win24.2%

Draw27.6%

Leicester to win48.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 2–1

Oxford United lead at half-time23.4%

Level at half-time45.5%

Leicester lead at half-time31.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Oxford United ahead or level68.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.5%

X2 — level or Leicester ahead76.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1705 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Oxford United: at least 11Actual: 10
Leicester: at least 9Actual: 11

Corners

Oxford United: at least 4Actual: 4
Leicester: at least 5Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Oxford United score0.99

Attack: Oxford United score below the league average (21% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Leicester's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.99 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Leicester score1.55

Attack: Leicester score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Oxford United's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.55 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%0–111.1%1–210.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.