Championship · England · Regular Season - 4

Ipswich–Derby

2–2

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 30 August 2025 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 24%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'IpswichJ. Greaves
50'DerbyC. Morris (penalty)
70'DerbyR. Brewster
90'IpswichJ. Clarke (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ipswich		Derby
18	Shots	10
5	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	6
0	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	3
0	Offsides	0
69%	Possession	31%
477	Passes	214
391	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ipswich 1.73 · Derby 0.73. On the pitch: 2-2.
Shots Ipswich 18 · Derby 10; on target 5 and 2.
Ipswich kept the ball more (69%).

Referee

L. Doughty→

4.47

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.5%: “Ipswich to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.72 for Ipswich, 0.69 for Derby.
The highest double chance value is 86.8% (1X — Ipswich win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,696 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ipswich to win62.5%

Draw24.3%

Derby to win13.2%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

14	Fouls	14

2	Yellow cards	7

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ipswich lead at half-time38.8%

Level at half-time42.8%

Derby lead at half-time18.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Ipswich ahead or level81.7%

12 — not level at half-time57.2%

X2 — level or Derby ahead61.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1696 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ipswich: at least 9Actual: 14
Derby: at least 12Actual: 14

Corners

Ipswich: at least 5Actual: 6
Derby: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ipswich score1.73

Attack: Ipswich score above the league average (22% more).

Opponent's defence: Derby's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.73 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Derby score0.73

Attack: Derby score below the league average (17% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ipswich concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.9%2–013.7%1–112.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.