1. Lig · Turkey · Semi-finals

Bodrum FK–Çorum FK

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Monday, 11 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

65'Bodrum FKA. Aytemur (assist: D. Hotić)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Çorum FK
8	Shots	13
3	Shots on target	2
6	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	5
0	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
314	Passes	455
259	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.50 · Çorum FK 1.20. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Bodrum FK 8 · Çorum FK 13; on target 3 and 2.
Çorum FK kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. Akarsu→

4.39

yellows per match

0.13

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 43.4%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “Çorum FK to win” at 29.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.50 for Bodrum FK, 1.20 for Çorum FK.
The highest double chance value is 72.5% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,377 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win43.4%

Draw27.5%

Çorum FK to win29.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

Double chance

1X — Bodrum FK win or draw70.9%

12 — any result other than a draw72.5%

X2 — draw or Çorum FK win56.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time42.4%

Level at half-time40.7%

Çorum FK lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.3%

X2 — level or Çorum FK ahead57.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1377 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 10Actual: 10
Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 3Actual: 3
Çorum FK: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.50

Attack: Bodrum FK score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Çorum FK score1.20

Attack: Çorum FK score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.9%2–19.9%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.