1. Lig · Turkey · Quarter-finals

Çorum FK–Keçiörengücü

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

20'Çorum FKFredy (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Çorum FK		Keçiörengücü
8	Shots	11
2	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	5
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
2	Corners	8
5	Offsides	3
47%	Possession	53%
303	Passes	347
239	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Çorum FK 1.67 · Keçiörengücü 1.12. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Çorum FK 8 · Keçiörengücü 11; on target 2 and 3.

Referee

O. Guldibi→

5.29

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 49.7%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Çorum FK, 1.12 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 75.8% (1X — Çorum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,377 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Çorum FK to win49.7%

Draw26.1%

Keçiörengücü to win24.2%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Çorum FK win or draw75.8%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Keçiörengücü win50.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Çorum FK lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time40.2%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time29.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Çorum FK ahead or level70.1%

12 — not level at half-time59.8%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1377 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Çorum FK: at least 10Actual: 14
Keçiörengücü: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Çorum FK: at least 5Actual: 2
Keçiörengücü: at least 2Actual: 8

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Çorum FK score1.67

Attack: Çorum FK score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.12

Attack: Keçiörengücü score above the league average (31% more).

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK concede 31% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.12 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%2–110.6%1–09.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1377 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 110 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.