1. Lig · Turkey · Quarter-finals

Bodrum FK–Pendikspor

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Thursday, 7 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

Goals and red cards

55'Bodrum FKV. Soldo (own goal)
81'Bodrum FKT. Seferi (assist: Ali Habeşoğlu)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Pendikspor
14	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	1
11	Shots inside the box	2
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
3	Corners	4
2	Offsides	2
41%	Possession	59%
292	Passes	430
237	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.63 · Pendikspor 1.13. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bodrum FK 14 · Pendikspor 9; on target 4 and 1.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

O. Turtay→

3.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.4%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.63 for Bodrum FK, 1.13 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 74.9% (1X — Bodrum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,377 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win48.4%

Draw26.5%

Pendikspor to win25.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodrum FK win or draw74.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.5%

X2 — draw or Pendikspor win51.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.5%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time41.6%

Level at half-time41.6%

Pendikspor lead at half-time16.9%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level83.1%

12 — not level at half-time58.4%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead58.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1377 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 11Actual: 11
Pendikspor: at least 13Actual: 14

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 3Actual: 3
Pendikspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.6%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.63

Attack: Bodrum FK score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score1.13

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.13 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–110.5%1–09.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1377 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 108 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.