1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Iğdır FK–Amed

3–3

HT 2–2

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

6'Iğdır FKM. Fofana
19'AmedH. A. Kaldirim (assist: Dia Saba)
45'AmedMbaye Diagne (penalty)
45'Iğdır FKMbaye Diagne (own goal)
49'AmedDia Saba (assist: Mbaye Diagne)
80'Iğdır FKA. Çankaya

Match statistics

Match statistics
Iğdır FK		Amed
7	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
3	Corners	4
1	Offsides	2
50%	Possession	50%
304	Passes	300
227	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Iğdır FK 1.34 · Amed 1.37. On the pitch: 3-3.
Shots Iğdır FK 7 · Amed 9; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

A. Yilmaz→

4.23

yellows per match

0.15

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.8%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “Iğdır FK to win” at 35.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.34 for Iğdır FK, 1.37 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,371 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Iğdır FK to win35.4%

Draw27.8%

Amed to win36.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

18	Fouls	10

8	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–2

Iğdır FK lead at half-time25.7%

Level at half-time43.8%

Amed lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Iğdır FK ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Amed ahead74.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1371 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Iğdır FK: at least 11Actual: 18
Amed: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Iğdır FK: at least 4Actual: 3
Amed: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Iğdır FK score1.34

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.34 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.37

Attack: Amed score above the league average (30% more).

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.37 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%1–29.1%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.