1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Çorum FK–Erzurumspor FK

1–1

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 30%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

10'Çorum FKB. Samudio
80'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Çorum FK		Erzurumspor FK
14	Shots	11
8	Shots on target	4
4	Shots inside the box	6
3	Goalkeeper saves	9
8	Corners	2
4	Offsides	0
54%	Possession	46%
479	Passes	407
412	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Çorum FK 1.20 · Erzurumspor FK 1.17. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Çorum FK 14 · Erzurumspor FK 11; on target 8 and 4.

Referee

M. Metoglu→

5.67

yellows per match

0.67

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 35.9%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “Erzurumspor FK to win” at 34.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.20 for Çorum FK, 1.17 for Erzurumspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 70.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,371 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Çorum FK to win35.9%

Draw30.0%

Erzurumspor FK to win34.2%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	10

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Çorum FK lead at half-time18.4%

Level at half-time44.9%

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time36.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Çorum FK ahead or level63.3%

12 — not level at half-time55.1%

X2 — level or Erzurumspor FK ahead81.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1371 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 13
Erzurumspor FK: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Çorum FK: at least 5Actual: 8
Erzurumspor FK: at least 3Actual: 2

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Çorum FK score1.20

Attack: Çorum FK score above the league average (21% more).

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 48% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.17

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK concede 32% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.17 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–115.2%1–010.4%0–110.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.