1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Ümraniyespor–Keçiörengücü

1–4

HT 1–4

Kick-off: Saturday, 2 May 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 38%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

7'ÜmraniyesporY. Kocatürk (assist: C. Soukou)
17'KeçiörengücüJ. Fernandes (assist: O. Roshi)
23'KeçiörengücüJ. Fernandes (assist: F. Ezeh)
32'KeçiörengücüJ. Fernandes
45'KeçiörengücüF. Ezeh (assist: E. Develi)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ümraniyespor		Keçiörengücü
15	Shots	19
4	Shots on target	9
7	Shots inside the box	10
5	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	1
0	Offsides	5
52%	Possession	48%
448	Passes	426
375	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ümraniyespor 1.28 · Keçiörengücü 1.38. On the pitch: 1-4.
Shots Ümraniyespor 15 · Keçiörengücü 19; on target 4 and 9.

Referee

C. Altay→

3.30

yellows per match

0.40

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “Ümraniyespor to win” at 33.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.28 for Ümraniyespor, 1.38 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 71.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,371 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ümraniyespor to win33.7%

Draw28.1%

Keçiörengücü to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	2

0	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–4

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time27.9%

Level at half-time41.9%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time30.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Ümraniyespor ahead or level69.9%

12 — not level at half-time58.1%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead72.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1371 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ümraniyespor: at least 9Actual: 8
Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 2

Corners

Ümraniyespor: at least 4Actual: 7
Keçiörengücü: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.28

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü concede 18% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.38

Attack: Keçiörengücü score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.2%1–29.3%0–18.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.