1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Manisa F.K.–Sakaryaspor

5–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mumin Ozkasap Spor Tesisleri, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

13'Manisa F.K.B. Adekanye
26'Manisa F.K.B. Adekanye (assist: Loïs Diony)
49'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (penalty)
53'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: M. Kiprit)
57'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: Y. E. Kose)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Sakaryaspor
18	Shots	11
10	Shots on target	5
13	Shots inside the box	4
5	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
2	Offsides	1
47%	Possession	53%
412	Passes	459
365	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.85 · Sakaryaspor 1.16. On the pitch: 5-0.
Shots Manisa F.K. 18 · Sakaryaspor 11; on target 10 and 5.

Referee

O. Gokcen→

4.00

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 53.3%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.85 for Manisa F.K., 1.16 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 77.7% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,370 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win53.3%

Draw24.4%

Sakaryaspor to win22.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time32.5%

Level at half-time42.4%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead67.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1370 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 11Actual: 9
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 7
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.85

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.85 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.16

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.16 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.8%2–08.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.