1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 38

Boluspor–Serik Spor

3–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Friday, 1 May 2026 at 14:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Bolu Atatürk Stadyumu, Bolu

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

12'Serik SporL. Skvortsov
69'BolusporH. Alpsoy (assist: M. Balburdia)
75'BolusporD. Davas (assist: M. Balburdia)
90'BolusporD. Yildiz (assist: E. Dikbasan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Boluspor		Serik Spor
15	Shots	8
4	Shots on target	4
7	Shots inside the box	7
3	Goalkeeper saves	1
8	Corners	1
3	Offsides	2
58%	Possession	42%
503	Passes	365
432	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Boluspor 2.12 · Serik Spor 0.97. On the pitch: 3-1.
Shots Boluspor 15 · Serik Spor 8; on target 4 and 4.
Boluspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

H. Ulker→

3.75

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 64.1%: “Boluspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 21.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.12 for Boluspor, 0.97 for Serik Spor.
The highest double chance value is 85.2% (1X — Boluspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,368 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Boluspor to win64.1%

Draw21.1%

Serik Spor to win14.8%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Boluspor lead at half-time55.4%

Level at half-time34.5%

Serik Spor lead at half-time10.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Boluspor ahead or level89.9%

12 — not level at half-time65.5%

X2 — level or Serik Spor ahead44.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1368 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Boluspor: at least 9Actual: 11
Serik Spor: at least 13Actual: 17

Corners

Boluspor: at least 4Actual: 8
Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Boluspor score2.12

Attack: Boluspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor concede 18% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.12 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Serik Spor score0.97

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Boluspor's defence is close to the league average (0.98×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.97 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–111.0%1–110.5%2–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.