1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Sakaryaspor–Çorum FK

0–4

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Çorum FKB. Samudio (assist: O. Gürbulak)
69'Çorum FKY. Erdoğan (assist: S. Gürler)
77'Çorum FKFredy (penalty)
84'Çorum FKS. Gürler (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Çorum FK
9	Shots	18
0	Shots on target	12
4	Shots inside the box	14
8	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	5
2	Offsides	7
47%	Possession	53%
437	Passes	491
383	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 1.10 · Çorum FK 1.67. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots Sakaryaspor 9 · Çorum FK 18; on target 0 and 12.

Referee

B. Pakkan→

5.50

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 50.3%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.10 for Sakaryaspor, 1.67 for Çorum FK.
The highest double chance value is 76.3% (X2 — draw or Çorum FK win).
These values were computed from 1,360 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win23.7%

Draw26.1%

Çorum FK to win50.3%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	12

4	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw49.7%

12 — any result other than a draw73.9%

X2 — draw or Çorum FK win76.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time28.5%

Level at half-time42.9%

Çorum FK lead at half-time28.6%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level71.4%

12 — not level at half-time57.1%

X2 — level or Çorum FK ahead71.5%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1360 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 11
Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 2
Çorum FK: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals53.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.10

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK concede 30% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Çorum FK score1.67

Attack: Çorum FK score above the league average (18% more).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.14×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.1%1–210.6%0–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1360 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 108 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.