1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Erzurumspor FK–Bandırmaspor

1–1

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 26 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 26%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

83'BandırmasporA. Nukan (assist: H. Çiftçi)
90'Erzurumspor FKE. Tozlu

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		Bandırmaspor
16	Shots	6
7	Shots on target	3
11	Shots inside the box	2
2	Goalkeeper saves	6
4	Corners	5
4	Offsides	3
66%	Possession	34%
533	Passes	273
482	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 1.64 · Bandırmaspor 0.73. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 16 · Bandırmaspor 6; on target 7 and 3.
Erzurumspor FK kept the ball more (66%).

Referee

D. Tonusluoglu→

4.86

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 59.4%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 25.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.64 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.73 for Bandırmaspor.
The highest double chance value is 85.0% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,360 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win59.4%

Draw25.6%

Bandırmaspor to win15.0%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	4

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time41.0%

Level at half-time44.8%

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time14.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level85.8%

12 — not level at half-time55.2%

X2 — level or Bandırmaspor ahead59.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1360 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 10Actual: 9
Bandırmaspor: at least 11Actual: 4

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 5Actual: 4
Bandırmaspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.64

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score above the league average (23% more).

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.64 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Bandırmaspor score0.73

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 47% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.73 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–014.8%2–013.0%1–112.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.