1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Adana Demirspor–Ümraniyespor

1–3

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'Adana DemirsporA. Bolat (assist: T. Bayar)
45'ÜmraniyesporTalha Özdemir (assist: T. Kosoko)
79'Adana DemirsporEnes Demirtas · red card
87'ÜmraniyesporD. Ertugrul (assist: O. Yildirim)
90'ÜmraniyesporJ. Bardhi (assist: D. Ertugrul)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Ümraniyespor
8	Shots	16
7	Shots on target	7
3	Shots inside the box	10
4	Goalkeeper saves	6
7	Corners	7
1	Offsides	9
41%	Possession	59%
283	Passes	405
224	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.54 · Ümraniyespor 2.54. On the pitch: 1-3.
Shots Adana Demirspor 8 · Ümraniyespor 16; on target 7 and 7.
Ümraniyespor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

M. Dakan→

3.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 81.7%: “Ümraniyespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 13.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.54 for Adana Demirspor, 2.54 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 95.2% (X2 — draw or Ümraniyespor win).
These values were computed from 1,359 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win4.8%

Draw13.4%

Ümraniyespor to win81.7%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	11

1	Yellow cards	4

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time2.0%

Level at half-time26.9%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time71.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level28.9%

12 — not level at half-time73.1%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead98.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1359 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 9Actual: 13
Ümraniyespor: at least 10Actual: 11

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 2Actual: 7
Ümraniyespor: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.54

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (56% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.85×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.54 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score2.54

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 139% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.54 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–215.4%0–313.1%0–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.