1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 37

Serik Spor–Hatayspor

4–2

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 25 April 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'HataysporYunus Azrak
51'Serik SporG. Altıparmak (assist: L. Skvortsov)
67'HataysporE. Arslan
79'Serik SporA. Koc
84'Serik SporM. Nalepa (assist: Seref Özcan)
90'Serik SporI. Sadygov (assist: A. D. Akyildiz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Hatayspor
14	Shots	16
9	Shots on target	7
7	Shots inside the box	15
3	Goalkeeper saves	5
4	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
57%	Possession	43%
423	Passes	314
348	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 2.11 · Hatayspor 0.83. On the pitch: 4-2.
Shots Serik Spor 14 · Hatayspor 16; on target 9 and 7.
Serik Spor kept the ball more (57%).

Referee

A. Albayrak→

5.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 67.4%: “Serik Spor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.11 for Serik Spor, 0.83 for Hatayspor.
The highest double chance value is 87.8% (1X — Serik Spor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,357 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win67.4%

Draw20.5%

Hatayspor to win12.2%

When the model has said 65–70% in the past, 675 of 977 predictions were correct (69.1%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

11	Fouls	16

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Serik Spor lead at half-time41.2%

Level at half-time41.1%

Hatayspor lead at half-time17.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level82.3%

12 — not level at half-time58.9%

X2 — level or Hatayspor ahead58.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1357 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 12Actual: 11
Hatayspor: at least 10Actual: 16

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 4Actual: 4
Hatayspor: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score2.11

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 52% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.11 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hatayspor score0.83

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (38% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor's defence is close to the league average (1.15×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.83 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–012.1%2–110.8%1–010.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.