1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Esenler Erokspor–Keçiörengücü

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'Esenler EroksporM. Faye (assist: H. Catakovic)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Keçiörengücü
7	Shots	8
2	Shots on target	2
3	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	0
6	Corners	4
0	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
324	Passes	318
258	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.86 · Keçiörengücü 1.10. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 7 · Keçiörengücü 8; on target 2 and 2.

Referee

O. Cakir→

4.40

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.0%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.86 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.10 for Keçiörengücü.
The highest double chance value is 79.2% (1X — Esenler Erokspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,348 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win55.0%

Draw24.2%

Keçiörengücü to win20.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	17

3	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time35.4%

Level at half-time39.5%

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time60.5%

X2 — level or Keçiörengücü ahead64.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1348 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 9Actual: 12
Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 17

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 6
Keçiörengücü: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.86

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (36% more).

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.86 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Keçiörengücü score1.10

Attack: Keçiörengücü score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.0%2–110.9%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.