1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Manisa F.K.–Serik Spor

1–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Mumin Ozkasap Spor Tesisleri, Manisa

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

64'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Serik Spor
14	Shots	12
2	Shots on target	5
8	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
2	Corners	4
1	Offsides	0
58%	Possession	42%
522	Passes	373
452	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.89 · Serik Spor 1.10. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Manisa F.K. 14 · Serik Spor 12; on target 2 and 5.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

O. F. Gultekin→

5.50

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 55.6%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.89 for Manisa F.K., 1.10 for Serik Spor.
The highest double chance value is 79.6% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,348 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win55.6%

Draw24.0%

Serik Spor to win20.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,158 of 1,982 predictions were correct (58.4%). Accuracy record →

10	Fouls	21

2	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time45.8%

Level at half-time38.4%

Serik Spor lead at half-time15.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level84.2%

12 — not level at half-time61.6%

X2 — level or Serik Spor ahead54.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1348 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 10Actual: 10
Serik Spor: at least 11Actual: 21

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 2
Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.89

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.89 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Serik Spor score1.10

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.08×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.10 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.8%2–110.9%2–09.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.