1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 36

Bandırmaspor–Amed

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 19 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

39'AmedM. Uçar · red card
60'BandırmasporE. Acar (assist: K. Alıcı)
63'BandırmasporA. Badji

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bandırmaspor		Amed
9	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	4
5	Shots inside the box	13
2	Goalkeeper saves	3
2	Corners	10
1	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
371	Passes	319
298	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bandırmaspor 1.21 · Amed 1.32. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Bandırmaspor 9 · Amed 18; on target 5 and 4.

Referee

O. Ergun→

4.77

yellows per match

0.23

reds per match

matches of data

13 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.3%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “Bandırmaspor to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.21 for Bandırmaspor, 1.32 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,348 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bandırmaspor to win32.8%

Draw28.9%

Amed to win38.3%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

16	Fouls	14

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	1

First half

Actual: 0–0

Bandırmaspor lead at half-time24.2%

Level at half-time44.3%

Amed lead at half-time31.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Bandırmaspor ahead or level68.5%

12 — not level at half-time55.7%

X2 — level or Amed ahead75.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1348 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bandırmaspor: at least 10Actual: 16
Amed: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Bandırmaspor: at least 3Actual: 2
Amed: at least 4Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bandırmaspor score1.21

Attack: Bandırmaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 24% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.21 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.32

Attack: Amed score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Bandırmaspor concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.32 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%0–19.6%1–29.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.