1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 35

Adana Demirspor–Iğdır FK

1–6

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Sunday, 12 April 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

25'Iğdır FKG. Bruno (assist: G. Vural)
35'Adana DemirsporWenderson Tsunami (own goal)
39'Iğdır FKR. Mendes (assist: A. Çankaya)
49'Iğdır FKL. Bacuna (assist: R. Mendes)
60'Iğdır FKR. Mendes (assist: G. Kaya)
80'Iğdır FKF. Koita

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Iğdır FK
5	Shots	20
2	Shots on target	12
4	Shots inside the box	16
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
0	Corners	5
2	Offsides	8
37%	Possession	63%
302	Passes	522
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.50 · Iğdır FK 2.67. On the pitch: 1-6.
Shots Adana Demirspor 5 · Iğdır FK 20; on target 2 and 12.
Iğdır FK kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

Y. A. Kendirciler→

4.33

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 84.3%: “Iğdır FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 11.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.50 for Adana Demirspor, 2.67 for Iğdır FK.
The highest double chance value is 96.1% (X2 — draw or Iğdır FK win).
These values were computed from 1,341 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win3.9%

Draw11.9%

Iğdır FK to win84.3%

When the model has said 80–85% in the past, 269 of 319 predictions were correct (84.3%). Accuracy record →

7	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–2

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time0.4%

Level at half-time23.3%

Iğdır FK lead at half-time76.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level23.7%

12 — not level at half-time76.7%

X2 — level or Iğdır FK ahead99.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1341 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 9Actual: 7
Iğdır FK: at least 11Actual: 17

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 2
Iğdır FK: at least 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.50

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (54% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Iğdır FK concede 17% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.50 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Iğdır FK score2.67

Attack: Iğdır FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 133% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.67 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–215.6%0–314.0%0–110.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.