1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Ümraniyespor–Sakaryaspor

2–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Wednesday, 8 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'ÜmraniyesporB. Celik (assist: Ali Turap Bülbül)
47'ÜmraniyesporT. Kosoko (assist: B. Celik)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Ümraniyespor		Sakaryaspor
11	Shots	8
3	Shots on target	1
8	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	1
4	Corners	4
0	Offsides	3
42%	Possession	58%
383	Passes	516
300	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Ümraniyespor 1.67 · Sakaryaspor 1.04. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Ümraniyespor 11 · Sakaryaspor 8; on target 3 and 1.
Sakaryaspor kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

F. Tokail→

4.61

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 51.9%: “Ümraniyespor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.67 for Ümraniyespor, 1.04 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 77.9% (1X — Ümraniyespor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,333 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Ümraniyespor to win51.9%

Draw26.0%

Sakaryaspor to win22.1%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	14

0	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,565 of 4,457 predictions were correct (57.5%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Ümraniyespor win or draw77.9%

12 — any result other than a draw74.0%

X2 — draw or Sakaryaspor win48.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.0%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time36.6%

Level at half-time43.1%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time20.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Ümraniyespor ahead or level79.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.9%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead63.4%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1333 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Ümraniyespor: at least 11Actual: 11
Sakaryaspor: at least 11Actual: 14

Corners

Ümraniyespor: at least 4Actual: 4
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.5%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.67

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.12×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.67 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.04

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.04 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.6%1–010.3%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1333 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 105 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.