1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 34

Serik Spor–Vanspor FK

1–6

HT 1–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 8 April 2026 at 11:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 33%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

9'Vanspor FKIván Cédric (assist: Sabahattin Destici)
26'Vanspor FKA. Martynov (own goal)
35'Serik SporJ. Topalli (assist: B. Karakaya)
55'Vanspor FKK. Mamah (assist: Iván Cédric)
70'Vanspor FKE. Secgin
73'Vanspor FKIván Cédric (assist: Emir Bars)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Vanspor FK
15	Shots	16
5	Shots on target	8
7	Shots inside the box	11
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	5
0	Offsides	1
45%	Possession	55%
310	Passes	375
238	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.42 · Vanspor FK 1.28. On the pitch: 1-6.
Shots Serik Spor 15 · Vanspor FK 16; on target 5 and 8.
Vanspor FK kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

D. Celik→

5.25

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.4%: “Serik Spor to win”. Second comes “Vanspor FK to win” at 32.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Serik Spor, 1.28 for Vanspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 72.2% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,331 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win39.4%

Draw27.8%

Vanspor FK to win32.8%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

79'Serik SporB. Ceylan · red card

85'Vanspor FKS. Hostikka (assist: Emir Bars)

15	Fouls	9

3	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Serik Spor win or draw67.2%

12 — any result other than a draw72.2%

X2 — draw or Vanspor FK win60.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.8%).

First half

Actual: 1–2

Serik Spor lead at half-time26.3%

Level at half-time43.2%

Vanspor FK lead at half-time30.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level69.5%

12 — not level at half-time56.8%

X2 — level or Vanspor FK ahead73.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1331 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 13Actual: 15
Vanspor FK: at least 11Actual: 9

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 7
Vanspor FK: at least 4Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals51.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.42

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vanspor FK's defence is close to the league average (0.92×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Vanspor FK score1.28

Attack: Vanspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.28 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.5%1–08.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1331 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 33 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.