1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 33

Bodrum FK–Ümraniyespor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Friday, 3 April 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Bodrum FKD. Hotić (assist: O. Imeri)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Bodrum FK		Ümraniyespor
16	Shots	7
3	Shots on target	4
6	Shots inside the box	4
4	Goalkeeper saves	2
5	Corners	3
3	Offsides	0
50%	Possession	50%
436	Passes	434
361	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Bodrum FK 1.96 · Ümraniyespor 0.91. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Bodrum FK 16 · Ümraniyespor 7; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

R. Coskunses→

5.83

yellows per match

0.50

reds per match

matches of data

6 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 62.0%: “Bodrum FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 22.6%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.96 for Bodrum FK, 0.91 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 84.6% (1X — Bodrum FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,319 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Bodrum FK to win62.0%

Draw22.6%

Ümraniyespor to win15.4%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

11	Fouls	12

2	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 2,597 of 5,092 predictions were correct (51.0%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Bodrum FK win or draw84.6%

12 — any result other than a draw77.4%

X2 — draw or Ümraniyespor win38.0%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (22.6%).

First half

Actual: 1–0

Bodrum FK lead at half-time43.7%

Level at half-time40.6%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time15.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Bodrum FK ahead or level84.3%

12 — not level at half-time59.4%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead56.3%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1319 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Bodrum FK: at least 12Actual: 11
Ümraniyespor: at least 10Actual: 12

Corners

Bodrum FK: at least 4Actual: 5
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals55.4%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Bodrum FK score1.96

Attack: Bodrum FK score above the league average (40% more).

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.86×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.96 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score0.91

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Bodrum FK concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.91 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–111.4%2–011.1%2–111.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1319 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 102 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.