1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Esenler Erokspor–Erzurumspor FK

0–2

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 16:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 34%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

57'Erzurumspor FKB. Keser (assist: E. Tozlu)
90'Erzurumspor FKC. Sylla (assist: Brandon Baiye)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Erzurumspor FK
16	Shots	3
3	Shots on target	2
13	Shots inside the box	3
0	Goalkeeper saves	3
11	Corners	1
0	Offsides	2
65%	Possession	35%
566	Passes	326
498	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.29 · Erzurumspor FK 1.25. On the pitch: 0-2.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 16 · Erzurumspor FK 3; on target 3 and 2.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (65%).

Referee

A. Akarsu→

4.49

yellows per match

0.14

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.6%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “Erzurumspor FK to win” at 34.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.29 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.25 for Erzurumspor FK.
The highest double chance value is 71.1% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,316 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win36.6%

Draw28.9%

Erzurumspor FK to win34.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	12

3	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time19.9%

Level at half-time43.8%

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time36.3%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level63.7%

12 — not level at half-time56.2%

X2 — level or Erzurumspor FK ahead80.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1316 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 11Actual: 9
Erzurumspor FK: at least 11Actual: 12

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 11
Erzurumspor FK: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.29

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (33% more).

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 45% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: A strong attack meets a strong defence. The two largely cancel and the expectation drops to 1.29 goals — markedly lower than the attack alone would promise.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score1.25

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score above the league average (25% more).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor concede 25% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.25 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–09.3%2–18.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.