1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Vanspor FK–Sarıyer

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 22 March 2026 at 10:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 28%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Match statistics

Match statistics
Vanspor FK		Sarıyer
12	Shots	9
4	Shots on target	1
4	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	5
1	Offsides	1
60%	Possession	40%
400	Passes	254
307	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Vanspor FK 1.46 · Sarıyer 1.06. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Vanspor FK 12 · Sarıyer 9; on target 4 and 1.
Vanspor FK kept the ball more (60%).

Referee

F. Tokail→

4.53

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.7%: “Vanspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.46 for Vanspor FK, 1.06 for Sarıyer.
The highest double chance value is 73.9% (1X — Vanspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,312 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Vanspor FK to win45.7%

Draw28.2%

Sarıyer to win26.1%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	4

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Vanspor FK lead at half-time29.9%

Level at half-time45.2%

Sarıyer lead at half-time24.8%

First-half double chance

1X — Vanspor FK ahead or level75.2%

12 — not level at half-time54.8%

X2 — level or Sarıyer ahead70.1%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1312 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Vanspor FK: at least 13Actual: 12
Sarıyer: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Vanspor FK: at least 3Actual: 6
Sarıyer: at least 3Actual: 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Vanspor FK score1.46

Attack: Vanspor FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.46 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarıyer score1.06

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Vanspor FK's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.06 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.3%1–010.9%2–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.