1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Manisa F.K.–Sivasspor

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 30%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'SivassporJ. Okoronkwo (assist: M. Yildirim)
74'Manisa F.K.C. Hérelle · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Sivasspor
6	Shots	13
2	Shots on target	3
4	Shots inside the box	8
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
4	Corners	10
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
449	Passes	333
367	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.47 · Sivasspor 1.22. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 6 · Sivasspor 13; on target 2 and 3.
Manisa F.K. kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

M. Metoglu→

5.00

yellows per match

0.75

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.2%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “Sivasspor to win” at 30.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for Manisa F.K., 1.22 for Sivasspor.
The highest double chance value is 72.3% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,309 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win42.2%

Draw27.7%

Sivasspor to win30.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	8

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time25.2%

Level at half-time43.7%

Sivasspor lead at half-time31.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level68.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.3%

X2 — level or Sivasspor ahead74.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1309 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 9
Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 8

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 4Actual: 4
Sivasspor: at least 3Actual: 10

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.47

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor concede 20% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sivasspor score1.22

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.22 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.0%2–19.8%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.