1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 32

Serik Spor–Sakaryaspor

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Saturday, 21 March 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

88'Serik SporJ. Topalli (penalty)
90'Serik SporG. Altıparmak (assist: Seref Özcan)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Serik Spor		Sakaryaspor
13	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	1
9	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
5	Corners	4
6	Offsides	2
53%	Possession	47%
352	Passes	320
269	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Serik Spor 1.60 · Sakaryaspor 1.39. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Serik Spor 13 · Sakaryaspor 5; on target 5 and 1.

Referee

M. Turkmen→

3.90

yellows per match

0.20

reds per match

matches of data

10 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 41.7%: “Serik Spor to win”. Second comes “Sakaryaspor to win” at 32.1%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.60 for Serik Spor, 1.39 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 73.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,307 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Serik Spor to win41.7%

Draw26.2%

Sakaryaspor to win32.1%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	13

2	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Serik Spor win or draw67.9%

12 — any result other than a draw73.8%

X2 — draw or Sakaryaspor win58.3%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (26.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Serik Spor lead at half-time25.4%

Level at half-time41.2%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time33.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Serik Spor ahead or level66.6%

12 — not level at half-time58.8%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead74.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1307 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Serik Spor: at least 12Actual: 14
Sakaryaspor: at least 10Actual: 13

Corners

Serik Spor: at least 3Actual: 5
Sakaryaspor: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals58.3%

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 1,528 of 2,652 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.9%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Serik Spor score1.60

Attack: Serik Spor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.10×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.60 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.39

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Serik Spor concede 17% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.39 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.7%2–19.8%1–28.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1307 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 31 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.