1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Erzurumspor FK–Hatayspor

3–0

HT 2–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Kazım Karabekir Stadyumu, Erzurum

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

30'Erzurumspor FKR. Chaadaev (own goal)
43'Erzurumspor FKM. Rodriguez
90'Erzurumspor FKG. Crociata (assist: Fernando Andrade)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Erzurumspor FK		Hatayspor
22	Shots	5
5	Shots on target	3
17	Shots inside the box	3
3	Goalkeeper saves	3
9	Corners	3
2	Offsides	1
63%	Possession	37%
508	Passes	308
441	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Erzurumspor FK 2.92 · Hatayspor 0.29. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Erzurumspor FK 22 · Hatayspor 5; on target 5 and 3.
Erzurumspor FK kept the ball more (63%).

Referee

B. Pakkan→

5.65

yellows per match

0.38

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 90.8%: “Erzurumspor FK to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 7.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.92 for Erzurumspor FK, 0.29 for Hatayspor.
The highest double chance value is 98.5% (1X — Erzurumspor FK win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,299 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Erzurumspor FK to win90.8%

Draw7.7%

Hatayspor to win1.5%

When the model has said 90–95% in the past, 46 of 48 predictions were correct (95.8%). Accuracy record →

8	Fouls	13

1	Yellow cards	2

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 2–0

Erzurumspor FK lead at half-time60.4%

Level at half-time34.5%

Hatayspor lead at half-time5.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Erzurumspor FK ahead or level94.9%

12 — not level at half-time65.5%

X2 — level or Hatayspor ahead39.6%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1299 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Erzurumspor FK: at least 11Actual: 8
Hatayspor: at least 11Actual: 13

Corners

Erzurumspor FK: at least 5Actual: 9
Hatayspor: at least 2Actual: 3

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Erzurumspor FK score2.92

Attack: Erzurumspor FK score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Hatayspor concede 50% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.92 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Hatayspor score0.29

Attack: Hatayspor score below the league average (40% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Erzurumspor FK concede 46% below the league average — a defence that seriously brakes even a strong attack.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.29 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–017.8%3–017.7%4–012.7%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.