1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 31

Sivasspor–Ümraniyespor

1–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 15 March 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

45'SivassporT. Glumac (own goal)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sivasspor		Ümraniyespor
9	Shots	8
6	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	6
1	Goalkeeper saves	6
9	Corners	6
2	Offsides	1
50%	Possession	50%
380	Passes	385
301	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sivasspor 1.41 · Ümraniyespor 1.05. On the pitch: 1-0.
Shots Sivasspor 9 · Ümraniyespor 8; on target 6 and 0.

Referee

D. Tonusluoglu→

6.67

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 44.5%: “Sivasspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.41 for Sivasspor, 1.05 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 73.2% (1X — Sivasspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,299 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sivasspor to win44.5%

Draw28.7%

Ümraniyespor to win26.8%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

13	Fouls	7

6	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Sivasspor lead at half-time29.2%

Level at half-time45.7%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time25.1%

First-half double chance

1X — Sivasspor ahead or level74.9%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead70.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1299 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 13
Ümraniyespor: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Sivasspor: at least 4Actual: 9
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 6

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sivasspor score1.41

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.41 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.05

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.05 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.6%1–011.2%2–19.8%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.