1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Keçiörengücü–Sakaryaspor

1–1

HT 1–1

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 20%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

15'SakaryasporP. Yıldırım (assist: Serkan Yavuz)
36'KeçiörengücüM. Diouf (assist: F. Ezeh)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Keçiörengücü		Sakaryaspor
17	Shots	9
3	Shots on target	4
11	Shots inside the box	4
3	Goalkeeper saves	2
3	Corners	7
3	Offsides	2
48%	Possession	52%
359	Passes	382
293	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Keçiörengücü 2.20 · Sakaryaspor 1.00. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Keçiörengücü 17 · Sakaryaspor 9; on target 3 and 4.

Referee

B. Kolak→

4.94

yellows per match

0.19

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 65.0%: “Keçiörengücü to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 20.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 2.20 for Keçiörengücü, 1.00 for Sakaryaspor.
The highest double chance value is 85.5% (1X — Keçiörengücü win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,293 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Keçiörengücü to win65.0%

Draw20.5%

Sakaryaspor to win14.5%

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 847 of 1,354 predictions were correct (62.6%). Accuracy record →

14	Fouls	10

1	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–1

Keçiörengücü lead at half-time54.3%

Level at half-time34.2%

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time11.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Keçiörengücü ahead or level88.5%

12 — not level at half-time65.8%

X2 — level or Sakaryaspor ahead45.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1293 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Keçiörengücü: at least 12Actual: 14
Sakaryaspor: at least 10Actual: 10

Corners

Keçiörengücü: at least 4Actual: 3
Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Keçiörengücü score2.20

Attack: Keçiörengücü score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor's defence is close to the league average (1.11×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.20 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.00

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Keçiörengücü's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.00 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

2–110.9%2–010.0%1–110.0%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.