1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

İstanbulspor–Amed

0–4

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Wednesday, 11 March 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Esenyurt Necmi Kadıoğlu Stadyumu, Istanbul

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 35%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

34'AmedF. Afena-Gyan
39'AmedMbaye Diagne (assist: F. Hasani)
47'AmedMehmet Yeşil (assist: F. Hasani)
89'AmedMbaye Diagne (assist: Dia Saba)

Match statistics

Match statistics
İstanbulspor		Amed
13	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	6
7	Shots inside the box	9
2	Goalkeeper saves	4
4	Corners	7
0	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
423	Passes	379
342	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: İstanbulspor 1.47 · Amed 1.40. On the pitch: 0-4.
Shots İstanbulspor 13 · Amed 13; on target 4 and 6.

Referee

K. Saglam→

5.14

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

7 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 38.0%: “İstanbulspor to win”. Second comes “Amed to win” at 35.0%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.47 for İstanbulspor, 1.40 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,290 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

İstanbulspor to win38.0%

Draw27.0%

Amed to win35.0%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

1	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

İstanbulspor lead at half-time23.3%

Level at half-time42.2%

Amed lead at half-time34.5%

First-half double chance

1X — İstanbulspor ahead or level65.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.8%

X2 — level or Amed ahead76.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1290 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

İstanbulspor: at least 11Actual: 6
Amed: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

İstanbulspor: at least 3Actual: 4
Amed: at least 4Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals İstanbulspor score1.47

Attack: İstanbulspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 21% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.47 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.40

Attack: Amed score above the league average (26% more).

Opponent's defence: İstanbulspor's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.40 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.4%2–19.3%1–28.9%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.