1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 30

Manisa F.K.–Sarıyer

3–0

HT 1–0

Kick-off: Tuesday, 10 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'Manisa F.K.Loïs Diony (assist: Ayberk Karapo)
47'Manisa F.K.M. Cissokho · red card
57'Manisa F.K.B. Adekanye (assist: J. Lindseth)
90'Manisa F.K.Osman Kahraman (assist: Loïs Diony)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Sarıyer
9	Shots	20
5	Shots on target	6
4	Shots inside the box	12
6	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	4
0	Offsides	0
41%	Possession	59%
387	Passes	520
317	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.65 · Sarıyer 1.15. On the pitch: 3-0.
Shots Manisa F.K. 9 · Sarıyer 20; on target 5 and 6.
Sarıyer kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

A. B. Taskinsoy→

3.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

2 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 48.7%: “Manisa F.K. to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 26.2%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.65 for Manisa F.K., 1.15 for Sarıyer.
The highest double chance value is 75.0% (1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,289 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win48.7%

Draw26.2%

Sarıyer to win25.0%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

6	Fouls	14

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 1–0

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time34.1%

Level at half-time42.4%

Sarıyer lead at half-time23.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level76.5%

12 — not level at half-time57.6%

X2 — level or Sarıyer ahead65.9%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1289 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 12Actual: 6
Sarıyer: at least 10Actual: 14

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 3Actual: 2
Sarıyer: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.65

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.90×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.65 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarıyer score1.15

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.04×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.15 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.2%2–110.5%1–09.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.