1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 29

Sarıyer–Ümraniyespor

1–2

HT 0–2

Kick-off: Friday, 6 March 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Incorrect — we gave this result 28%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

11'ÜmraniyesporBenny (assist: A. Babacan)
41'ÜmraniyesporB. Celik (assist: A. Babacan)
64'SarıyerE. Eze (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarıyer		Ümraniyespor
9	Shots	7
5	Shots on target	3
5	Shots inside the box	5
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
7	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
58%	Possession	42%
475	Passes	359
389	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarıyer 1.38 · Ümraniyespor 1.09. On the pitch: 1-2.
Shots Sarıyer 9 · Ümraniyespor 7; on target 5 and 3.
Sarıyer kept the ball more (58%).

Referee

M. Metoglu→

6.00

yellows per match

1.00

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 42.7%: “Sarıyer to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 28.8%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.38 for Sarıyer, 1.09 for Ümraniyespor.
The highest double chance value is 71.6% (1X — Sarıyer win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,277 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarıyer to win42.7%

Draw28.8%

Ümraniyespor to win28.4%

When the model has said 40–45% in the past, 1,778 of 3,998 predictions were correct (44.5%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

15	Fouls	16

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–2

Sarıyer lead at half-time26.8%

Level at half-time45.7%

Ümraniyespor lead at half-time27.5%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarıyer ahead or level72.5%

12 — not level at half-time54.3%

X2 — level or Ümraniyespor ahead73.2%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1277 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarıyer: at least 10Actual: 15
Ümraniyespor: at least 11Actual: 16

Corners

Sarıyer: at least 4Actual: 7
Ümraniyespor: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarıyer score1.38

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Ümraniyespor's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.38 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Ümraniyespor score1.09

Attack: Ümraniyespor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.89×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–114.7%1–010.8%2–19.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.