1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Manisa F.K.–Çorum FK

0–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Monday, 2 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Too close to call — we gave this result 36%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

17'Çorum FKM. Thiam (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Manisa F.K.		Çorum FK
4	Shots	10
0	Shots on target	6
1	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
4	Corners	4
3	Offsides	2
44%	Possession	56%
368	Passes	467
280	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Manisa F.K. 1.42 · Çorum FK 1.42. On the pitch: 0-1.
Shots Manisa F.K. 4 · Çorum FK 10; on target 0 and 6.
Çorum FK kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

O. Guldibi→

5.75

yellows per match

0.25

reds per match

matches of data

4 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 36.5%: “Çorum FK to win”. Second comes “Manisa F.K. to win” at 36.4%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.42 for Manisa F.K., 1.42 for Çorum FK.
The highest double chance value is 72.9% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,276 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Manisa F.K. to win36.4%

Draw27.1%

Çorum FK to win36.5%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,563 of 4,188 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	19

3	Yellow cards	3

0	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,568 of 2,554 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. win or draw63.5%

12 — any result other than a draw72.9%

X2 — draw or Çorum FK win63.6%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.1%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Manisa F.K. lead at half-time32.2%

Level at half-time42.1%

Çorum FK lead at half-time25.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Manisa F.K. ahead or level74.3%

12 — not level at half-time57.9%

X2 — level or Çorum FK ahead67.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1276 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Manisa F.K.: at least 11Actual: 12
Çorum FK: at least 11Actual: 19

Corners

Manisa F.K.: at least 3Actual: 4
Çorum FK: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.8%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.7%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Manisa F.K. score1.42

Attack: Manisa F.K. score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Çorum FK concede 22% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Çorum FK score1.42

Attack: Çorum FK score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Manisa F.K.'s defence is close to the league average (1.00×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.42 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.5%1–29.1%2–19.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1276 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 99 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.