1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Sakaryaspor–Sarıyer

0–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 17:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

90+7'SakaryasporJ. Vukovic · red card

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sakaryaspor		Sarıyer
10	Shots	7
2	Shots on target	2
7	Shots inside the box	4
2	Goalkeeper saves	2
6	Corners	4
1	Offsides	3
61%	Possession	39%
493	Passes	313
419	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sakaryaspor 1.48 · Sarıyer 1.33. On the pitch: 0-0.
Shots Sakaryaspor 10 · Sarıyer 7; on target 2 and 2.
Sakaryaspor kept the ball more (61%).

Referee

F. Tokail→

4.59

yellows per match

0.24

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 39.9%: “Sakaryaspor to win”. Second comes “Sarıyer to win” at 32.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.48 for Sakaryaspor, 1.33 for Sarıyer.
The highest double chance value is 72.8% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,275 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sakaryaspor to win39.9%

Draw27.2%

Sarıyer to win32.9%

When the model has said 35–40% in the past, 1,562 of 4,187 predictions were correct (37.3%). Accuracy record →

17	Fouls	7

4	Yellow cards	3

1	Red cards	0

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 60–65% in the past, 1,567 of 2,553 predictions were correct (61.4%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor win or draw67.1%

12 — any result other than a draw72.8%

X2 — draw or Sarıyer win60.1%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.2%).

First half

Actual: 0–0

Sakaryaspor lead at half-time30.3%

Level at half-time43.5%

Sarıyer lead at half-time26.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sakaryaspor ahead or level73.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.5%

X2 — level or Sarıyer ahead69.7%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1275 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sakaryaspor: at least 12Actual: 17
Sarıyer: at least 11Actual: 7

Corners

Sakaryaspor: at least 3Actual: 6
Sarıyer: at least 4Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals54.0%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.8%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sakaryaspor score1.48

Attack: Sakaryaspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.91×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.48 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sarıyer score1.33

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Sakaryaspor concede 16% more than the league average, which pushes the expectation up.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.33 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%2–19.6%1–28.5%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1275 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 27 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.