1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Adana Demirspor–Pendikspor

0–5

HT 0–3

Kick-off: Sunday, 1 March 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

33'PendiksporH. Akman
40'PendiksporB. Sülüngöz (assist: B. Karadeniz)
44'PendiksporM. Wilks
67'PendiksporJ. Clarke-Harris (assist: B. Karadeniz)
72'Adana DemirsporA. Fidan · red card
87'PendiksporF. Doğan (assist: B. Karadeniz)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Pendikspor
4	Shots	22
2	Shots on target	13
1	Shots inside the box	19
8	Goalkeeper saves	2
2	Corners	7
0	Offsides	8
41%	Possession	59%
303	Passes	426
222	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.45 · Pendikspor 2.85. On the pitch: 0-5.
Shots Adana Demirspor 4 · Pendikspor 22; on target 2 and 13.
Pendikspor kept the ball more (59%).

Referee

I. Avci→

1.00

yellows per match

0.00

reds per match

matches of data

1 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 87.3%: “Pendikspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 9.9%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.45 for Adana Demirspor, 2.85 for Pendikspor.
The highest double chance value is 97.1% (X2 — draw or Pendikspor win).
These values were computed from 1,272 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win2.9%

Draw9.9%

Pendikspor to win87.3%

When the model has said 85–90% in the past, 146 of 165 predictions were correct (88.5%). Accuracy record →

12	Fouls	18

1	Yellow cards	2

1	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–3

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time4.2%

Level at half-time30.1%

Pendikspor lead at half-time65.7%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level34.3%

12 — not level at half-time69.9%

X2 — level or Pendikspor ahead95.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1272 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 8Actual: 12
Pendikspor: at least 13Actual: 18

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 2Actual: 2
Pendikspor: at least 5Actual: 7

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.45

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (49% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Pendikspor concede 26% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.45 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Pendikspor score2.85

Attack: Pendikspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 126% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.85 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–215.4%0–314.9%0–410.4%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.