1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 28

Esenler Erokspor–Boluspor

2–0

HT 0–0

Kick-off: Friday, 27 February 2026 at 13:00
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Prediction correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

46'Esenler EroksporAmilton
90'Esenler EroksporE. Gedik

Match statistics

Match statistics
Esenler Erokspor		Boluspor
22	Shots	5
6	Shots on target	1
17	Shots inside the box	3
1	Goalkeeper saves	3
7	Corners	4
2	Offsides	1
56%	Possession	44%
486	Passes	385
398	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Esenler Erokspor 1.81 · Boluspor 1.09. On the pitch: 2-0.
Shots Esenler Erokspor 22 · Boluspor 5; on target 6 and 1.
Esenler Erokspor kept the ball more (56%).

Referee

O. Turtay→

3.00

yellows per match

0.33

reds per match

matches of data

3 matches is a small sample — these averages are noisy and should not be read as a tendency.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 54.1%: “Esenler Erokspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 24.7%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.81 for Esenler Erokspor, 1.09 for Boluspor.
The highest double chance value is 78.8% (1X — Esenler Erokspor win or draw).
These values were computed from 1,267 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Esenler Erokspor to win54.1%

Draw24.7%

Boluspor to win21.2%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,337 of 2,542 predictions were correct (52.6%). Accuracy record →

15	Fouls	6

2	Yellow cards	1

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–0

Esenler Erokspor lead at half-time35.2%

Level at half-time40.4%

Boluspor lead at half-time24.4%

First-half double chance

1X — Esenler Erokspor ahead or level75.6%

12 — not level at half-time59.6%

X2 — level or Boluspor ahead64.8%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1267 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Esenler Erokspor: at least 12Actual: 15
Boluspor: at least 11Actual: 6

Corners

Esenler Erokspor: at least 4Actual: 7
Boluspor: at least 3Actual: 4

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Esenler Erokspor score1.81

Attack: Esenler Erokspor score above the league average (27% more).

Opponent's defence: Boluspor's defence is close to the league average (0.87×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.81 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Boluspor score1.09

Attack: Boluspor score above the league average (24% more).

Opponent's defence: Esenler Erokspor concede 27% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.09 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–112.3%2–110.9%1–09.1%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.