1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Sarıyer–Amed

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 27%

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

16'AmedMarcos Silva (own goal)
60'AmedH. A. Kaldirim · red card
85'SarıyerE. Eze (penalty)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Sarıyer		Amed
12	Shots	1
6	Shots on target	0
5	Shots inside the box	0
1	Goalkeeper saves	4
6	Corners	1
3	Offsides	1
53%	Possession	47%
374	Passes	341
305	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Sarıyer 1.18 · Amed 1.56. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Sarıyer 12 · Amed 1; on target 6 and 0.

Referee

B. Pakkan→

5.64

yellows per match

0.36

reds per match

matches of data

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 45.6%: “Amed to win”. Second comes “Sarıyer to win” at 27.5%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 1.18 for Sarıyer, 1.56 for Amed.
The highest double chance value is 73.0% (12 — any result other than a draw).
These values were computed from 1,253 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Sarıyer to win27.5%

Draw27.0%

Amed to win45.6%

When the model has said 45–50% in the past, 1,541 of 3,251 predictions were correct (47.4%). Accuracy record →

Both teams to score

12	Fouls	17

1	Yellow cards	5

0	Red cards	1

The measurements our data provider sent for this match. A row that was not measured shows “—”; writing 0 into an empty field would claim we measured it and found none.

When the model has said 55–60% in the past, 2,566 of 4,458 predictions were correct (57.6%). Accuracy record →

Double chance

1X — Sarıyer win or draw54.4%

12 — any result other than a draw73.0%

X2 — draw or Amed win72.5%

These three values add up to 200%, not 100% — and that is not a mistake. The options are not mutually exclusive; every outcome is counted in two of them. For the same reason 1X plus X2 exceeds 100% by exactly the probability of a draw (27.0%).

First half

Actual: 0–1

Sarıyer lead at half-time20.0%

Level at half-time43.9%

Amed lead at half-time36.2%

First-half double chance

1X — Sarıyer ahead or level63.8%

12 — not level at half-time56.1%

X2 — level or Amed ahead80.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1253 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Sarıyer: at least 10Actual: 12
Amed: at least 10Actual: 17

Corners

Sarıyer: at least 3Actual: 6
Amed: at least 3Actual: 1

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

Goals market

3+ goals52.4%

When the model has said 50–55% in the past, 1,761 of 3,286 predictions were correct (53.6%). Accuracy record →

The league's historical "3+ goals" rate is 48.6%. For this match the model gives a value above that baseline — and in backtesting the model's edge was confirmed only in this direction.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Sarıyer score1.18

Attack: Sarıyer score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Amed concede 19% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.18 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Amed score1.56

Attack: Amed score above the league average (32% more).

Opponent's defence: Sarıyer's defence is close to the league average (0.94×), so it doesn't move the expectation much.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 1.56 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

1–113.6%1–210.2%0–19.2%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.

Ratings were computed from 1253 matches played in this league before kick-off; the team with fewer has 25 matches. No data from after the match was used. The model's track record is published unfiltered.