1. Lig · Turkey · Regular Season - 26

Adana Demirspor–Sivasspor

1–1

HT 0–1

Kick-off: Thursday, 19 February 2026 at 10:30
Status: Match Finished
Venue: Yeni Adana Stadyumu, Adana

What the model said, and what happened

Ended level — we gave the draw 15%double chance: correct

This verdict goes into the public record unchanged; we do not filter out the ones we get wrong. The model's track record

Goals and red cards

3'SivassporV. Ethemi (assist: M. Çelik)
88'Adana DemirsporGokdeniz Tunc (assist: E. Namli)

Match statistics

Match statistics
Adana Demirspor		Sivasspor
4	Shots	13
1	Shots on target	6
1	Shots inside the box	6
5	Goalkeeper saves	0
0	Corners	6
3	Offsides	12
45%	Possession	55%
356	Passes	427
252	Accurate passes

What we expected, and what happened

Expected goals before kick-off: Adana Demirspor 0.63 · Sivasspor 2.44. On the pitch: 1-1.
Shots Adana Demirspor 4 · Sivasspor 13; on target 1 and 6.
Sivasspor kept the ball more (55%).

Referee

A. B. Taskinsoy→

There's no card data for this referee from before this match yet. We don't invent an average; it will appear here once the data exists.

Model prediction

Why this prediction?

The model puts the most likely outcome at 78.1%: “Sivasspor to win”. Second comes “a draw” at 15.3%.
Behind that distribution are the expected goals: 0.63 for Adana Demirspor, 2.44 for Sivasspor.
The highest double chance value is 93.5% (X2 — draw or Sivasspor win).
These values were computed from 1,253 past matches.

This is a prediction, not a guarantee; a probability is not a certainty.

These sentences are built by a fixed template; every number in them comes straight from the model's computation, none invented while the text was written.

Adana Demirspor to win6.5%

Draw15.3%

Sivasspor to win78.1%

When the model has said 75–80% in the past, 449 of 540 predictions were correct (83.1%). Accuracy record →

9	Fouls	11

2	Yellow cards	0

0	Red cards	0

First half

Actual: 0–1

Adana Demirspor lead at half-time4.0%

Level at half-time30.0%

Sivasspor lead at half-time66.0%

First-half double chance

1X — Adana Demirspor ahead or level34.0%

12 — not level at half-time70.0%

X2 — level or Sivasspor ahead96.0%

These values are not a fraction of the full-match prediction; they come from a separate model trained on the first-half scores of 1253 matches. Its edge over the base rate is markedly smaller than the full-match model's — the measured figure is on the accuracy record. Read them more cautiously. First-half goal markets are not published because they failed to beat the base rate.

Expected fouls and corners

Fouls

Adana Demirspor: at least 9Actual: 9
Sivasspor: at least 11Actual: 11

Corners

Adana Demirspor: at least 2
Sivasspor: at least 5

These figures are set to hold in at least 60% of matches; in the rest the count comes in below them. No upper bound is stated — we make no "at most" claim. Yellow cards were measured and are not published: there our model did not beat the historical average.

What these probabilities rest on

Expected goals comes out of a team's attack weighed against its opponent's defence. A strong attack is damped when it meets a strong defence — which is why comparing the ratings on their own is misleading.

How many goals Adana Demirspor score0.63

Attack: Adana Demirspor score below the league average (49% fewer).

Opponent's defence: Sivasspor concede 16% fewer than the league average, which pulls the expectation down.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 0.63 goals (including home advantage).

How many goals Sivasspor score2.44

Attack: Sivasspor score close to the league average.

Opponent's defence: Adana Demirspor concede 127% more than the league average — the defence is the weakest link in this match.

Result: These two effects give an expectation of 2.44 goals (including the away penalty).

Most likely scorelines

0–214.3%0–311.6%0–110.6%

A single scoreline is always less likely than an outcome: “home win” is the sum of 1-0, 2-0, 2-1 and dozens more. So the most likely single score can be a draw while the most likely outcome is a home win; the two do not contradict each other.